The model data on this page was valid as of: Thursday, October 3, 2013 6:00 Z (Zulu | GMT | UTC) Late Cycle and Other Previous Models were valid: Thursday, October 3, 2013 0:00 Z
Low (Invest 97L) coordinates: 21.5N 86.6W Location: 29 miles (47 km) to the NNE (32°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México
The center position noted in the map above represents the center location at the time the models were available. For many models, additional data may be available. Currently, we provide the forecast wind speed and pressure if it is available. You can access this data by clicking a position icon. An hour icon represents the forecast position of the storm in the amount of hours noted from the time start time of the model. An hour icon of 24 means that 24 hours from the time the model run started, the storm is forecast by that model to be in that position. The time the models came out is noted at the top of this page. Some models only going out several forecast positions, while others go out as many as 240 hours. Please keep in mind that less than a decade ago, 120 hour forecasts from the NHC were not even made public. A model forecast 240 hours out (10 days), is included here for educational purposes, since the accuracy of a forecast that far out is very much in doubt.
Late cycle models are available at the bottom of the list, if available. Along with the late cycle models, we also include the previous model run for a model that is not available this run. If any model was not available in the current run or the previous available run, we do not include the model.
There is no one model that is right all the time, so each storm and the conditions in and around that storm must be taken into account. Some models are known to perform better in certain scenarios and some older models are known to have limited forecasting ability. To the right of the map is the list of all the available models that have been run for this storm. Directly below the list are some quick links to turn on or off all the models or to turn on the most common models. The most common models are a collection of models that are commonly used and trusted to be more reliable. That does not mean any one model is correct for this storm as even the best models can be wrong.
Below the map are the map options which will give you several options for turning on several additional features. You can also display satellite imagery for various parts of the Atlantic and Caribbean and choose several different color enhancements.