ECMWF Model Description

European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecast System

The European Medium Range Forecast Model is considered one of the premiere global forecasting model for the mid-latitudes. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that resulted in accurate hurricane forecasting. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z.

The graphics above show the barometric pressure field. Lower pressures are indicated in dark blue. Higher pressures are indicated in red. Hurricanes and tropical storms, as well as non-tropical low-pressure areas are associated with low pressure (Blue).

The white lines are isobars (lines of equal pressure). The closer the lines are to each other, the stronger the winds.

Remember that these are mathematical models with varying initial assumptions. Thus, different models produce different final results. They do not necessarily reflect the "official" hurricane track issued by the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters review all of the model data but use their own experience and scientific expertise to arrive at a final forecast.